![]() We will publish the final benchmark revision in February 2020 and will incorporate revisions to data from April 2018 to December 2019. Then estimates from the benchmark forward to December are revised to reflect the new March employment level. Since the CES data are re-anchored to March of the last year, CES estimates are typically revised from April of the year prior up to the March benchmark. That’s because the population counts are not subject to the sampling and modeling errors that may occur with the CES monthly estimates. This process-which we call benchmarking-improves the accuracy of the CES data. QCEW data are typically available about 5 months after the end of each quarter.Įach year, we re-anchor the sample-based employment estimates to these full population counts for March of the prior year. This is also the main source of the complete count of employment used in the benchmark process. The primary source of the CES sample is the BLS Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) program, which collects employment and wage data from states’ unemployment insurance tax systems. In essence, we produce employment information really quickly from a sample of employers, then anchor that information to a complete count of employment once a year. To fix this problem, we “benchmark” the CES data to an actual count of all employees, information that’s only available several months after the initial CES data are published. So the monthly CES estimates aren’t exactly the same as if we had counted employment from all 10 million worksites each month. This means that while we work hard to ensure those 689,000 worksites represent all 10 million worksites in the country, sometimes our sample may not perfectly reflect all worksites. As with all sample-based surveys, CES estimates are subject to sampling error. The CES is a monthly survey of approximately 142,000 businesses and government agencies composed of approximately 689,000 individual worksites. What is benchmarking and why do we do it? Our goal is to provide estimates that are excellent and not just good or pretty good, and that’s why we benchmark the survey data each year. This year our survey estimates are off more than we would like. ![]() In most years our monthly employment survey has done a good job at estimating the total number of payroll jobs. Still, that estimated revision is only -0.3 percent of nonfarm employment. Our preliminary estimate indicates a downward adjustment to March 2019 total nonfarm employment of 501,000. ![]() So as not to bury the lead, I’ll let you know that this year’s preliminary estimate of the benchmark revision is a bit bigger than it has been in the last few years. Virgin Islands, as well as the metropolitan areas in New York and Northern New Jersey.BLS has released the “preliminary benchmark” information for the Current Employment Statistics (CES) survey, the source of monthly information on jobs.īut what pray tell is a benchmark? And what does this preliminary benchmark tell us? We are now releasing these early benchmarked regional data on a monthly basis for total employment in New York State, New Jersey, Puerto Rico, and the U.S. Rather than waiting until March for these revisions to be released, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York uses quarterly releases of the QCEW to ‘early benchmark’ the CES employment data more frequently, using a methodology similar to the approach used by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Once per year in March, the CES employment data are benchmarked to the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) data, a different employment series that captures nearly a full count of jobs, but is released with a six-month lag. However, these data are also subject to revisions which can sometimes be quite substantial. ![]() These monthly data are based on a sample of about one-third of the nation’s nonfarm employers and its accuracy can vary, particularly for smaller geographic areas, and are typically released with about a one-month lag. Bureau of Labor Statistics, is the most timely regional employment data currently available. The Current Employment Statistics (CES), produced by the U.S. What is the New York Fed Early Benchmarked Employment Data? ![]()
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